DDO information project/Monsters

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Kobold rogue
Analysis: 36 / 121 = 5.95 / 20 => hits on a 15 => BAB 11 Analysis: 38 / 122 = 6.23 / 20 => hits on a 15 => BAB 11 (and attacking from behind does not give an attack bonus to monsters) Analysis: 25 / 119 = 4.2 / 20 => hits on a 17 => BAB 9 (=> need more experiments to see if it's some randomness in the kobold stats, an artefact of random numbers, or if latest patch has modified their stats)
 * In Sewer rescue, facing AC 26: 85 misses, 36 hits (for pierce damage 3,5,1,1, 2,1,1,1,1,2,1,3, 1,1,1, 3,2,3,1, 6,1,2,2,3,1,3, 1,2,1,2,3,1, 3,2,1,1)
 * In Sewer rescue, attacking AC 26 from behind: 84 misses, 38 hits (for pierce damage 1,2,1,4,1,1,2,2,2, 1,2,4,1, 3,5, 3,1,3, 1,1,1, 2, 3,3, 1, 2,2,1,2,2,2,2, 3,1,2,3,1,1)
 * In Sewer rescue (Tihocan 14:11, April 7, 2006 (EDT)), facing AC 26: 94 misses, 25 hits (for pierce damage 1,3,1,1,2,1,1,1,1,1,1, 2, 1,1,1,1,1, 5,1,2, 1,1,1,1, 2)

Kobold
Before I even start, I need to declare severe headache at the moment. Math may be completely wrong. Please correct if you are more skilled than I.

Test conditions:


 * Kobold
 * 200 attack instances
 * I had AC 15, wearing DR1 shield.

From the Front

Hits: 0x51, 1x23, 2x20, 3x1, 4x0, 5x0, Missx105


 * Hit ratio: 95/200 (47.5%)
 * Facing AC 15
 * 95/200 = 9.5 / 20 = hits on a 11 = BAB 4.


 * Adjusted for DR1, hit is:
 * MEAN - 1.695
 * MODE - 1

From the Rear (theory is -2 AC)

Hits: 0x61, 1x22, 2x18, 3x2, 4x0, 5x1, Missx96


 * Hit ratio: 104/200 (52.0%)
 * Facing AC ??
 * 104/200 = 10.4 / 20 = hits on a 9 = BAB 4
 * AC is then 13 at this point in time.


 * Adjusted for DR1, hit is:
 * MEAN - 1.606
 * MODE - 1

From the Rear, while running (theory is -2 AC for rear, -4 for moving in combat)

Hits:

0x50, 1x22, 2x38, 3x3, 4x1, 5x0, Missx86


 * Hit ratio: 114/200 (57.0%)
 * Facing AC ??
 * 114/200 = 11.4 / 20 = hits on a 8 = BAB 4
 * AC is then 12 at this point in time.


 * Adjusted for DR1, hit is:
 * MEAN - 1.974
 * MODE - 1

Second way of figuring, 10.5 as average roll, 50% likely to happen

Going at it another way which may not make any sense either.

Formula is:

To-Hit = (hit%/50) * AC - AvgDieRoll OR x = (47.5/50) * 15 - 10.5

If facing front is:
 * AC: 15
 * Average die roll: 10.5.
 * Kobold hits: 47.5%
 * Kobold's To-Hit before die roll: 4.125

If rear is to target:


 * 4.125 = (52/50) * x - 10.5
 * 14.625 = 1.04 * x
 * 14.625/1.04 = x


 * AC: 14.0625
 * Average die roll: 10.5
 * Kobold hits: 52.0%
 * Kobold's To-Hit before die roll: 4.125

If rear is to target and you're running:


 * 4.125 = (57/50) * x - 10.5
 * 14.625 = 1.14 * x
 * 14.625/1.14 = x


 * AC: 12.8289
 * Average die roll: 10.5
 * Kobold hits: 57.0%
 * Kobold's To-Hit before die roll: 4.125

Conclusion


 * Front AC: Full
 * Rear AC: -2
 * Running AC, from rear: -3

I'm not sure what to make of the -3, perhaps a greater sample is needed. But I would think clearly being attacked from rear is showing a greater likelihood of being hit than from front. Rear, keep in mind, is only your back, not your sides. *shrugs* KakarisMaelstrom 21:42, April 27, 2006 (EDT)